India Rejects Claims of Excess Mortality During Covid-19 as Methodologically Flawed

India’s health ministry disputes a recent study’s findings on excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic, calling them grossly overstated and methodologically unsound.

Key Points

1. India’s health ministry disputes a study claiming excessive mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic, labeling it as “grossly misleading.”
2. The study reported a 17% increase in deaths in 2020 compared to the previous year, significantly higher than official figures.
3. The Ministry of Health and Family Welfare criticized the study’s methodology, citing flaws and lack of representativeness.
4. Official data from India’s Civil Registration System and Sample Registration System suggest minimal excess mortality.
5. The ministry highlighted discrepancies in the study’s gender and age-related mortality claims.

The Indian government has strongly rebuffed claims of significant excess mortality during the Covid-19 pandemic, labeling a recent study as a “gross and misleading overestimate.” The study, conducted by researchers of Indian origin at Oxford University and published in the US journal Science Advances, suggested that India saw a 17% increase in deaths in 2020 compared to the previous year—an estimate that is eight times higher than the official Covid-19 death count and 1.5 times higher than World Health Organization figures.

According to the Ministry of Health and Family Welfare (MoHFW), the study’s findings are based on “untenable and unacceptable estimates” and are methodologically flawed. The ministry highlighted that the actual increase in deaths was 4.74 lakh in 2020, based on the Civil Registration System (CRS), a robust national portal for recording births and deaths. Previous years, such as 2018 and 2019, also saw increases in death registrations, which were attributed to a growing population and improved death registration rates.

The MoHFW argued that not all excess deaths are due to the pandemic, as the increase in deaths could be related to other causes. They also criticized the study’s reliance on data from only 23% of households surveyed in 14 states between January and April 2021, deeming it insufficiently representative of the entire country.

Additionally, data from the Sample Registration System (SRS), which covers a broad demographic across 36 states and union territories, indicated minimal excess mortality in 2020 compared to 2019. The ministry also refuted the study’s claim of higher female mortality, citing evidence that Covid-19 disproportionately affected males and older age groups.

Overall, the Indian government’s response underscores significant disagreements with the study’s conclusions, reaffirming its stance on the accuracy of official mortality data during the pandemic.